After Two Years of Bloody Fighting, Ukraine Wrestles With Conscription

A proposed bill on mobilization has become the focus of a debate as more men dodge the draft and calls rise to demobilize exhausted soldiers.

When Russian troops and tanks invaded Ukraine in February 2022, tens of thousands of Ukrainians rushed to serve in the army in a surge of patriotic fervor. The influx of fighters who dutifully answered their draft notices or enlisted as volunteers helped to repel Russia’s initial assault and thwart the Kremlin’s plans to decapitate the Ukrainian government.

The change in mood has been particularly evident in the heated debates over a net mobilaizationbill that could lead to drafting up to 500,000 troops. The bill was introduced in Parliament last month — only to be quickly withdrawn for revision.

The biggest sticking point concerns the highly delicate issue of mass mobilization. Measures that would make conscription easier have been seen by experts as paving the way for a large-scale draft, of the kind several military officials have recently said is needed to make up for losses on the battlefield and withstand another year of fierce fighting. Many in Ukraine fear that such measures could stir up social tensions.

“The political leadership decided to avoid the issue of mobilization” for most of the war, Mr. Burkovsky said. But with troops depleted after two years, ignoring it is not sustainable, “and right now, someone has to be politically responsible.”

Mr. Zelensky has said his army chiefs have asked him to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 men. “This is a significant number,” he said last month, adding that a plan had to be drawn up before he could decide.

Experts say that is the main purpose of the mobilization bill, which does not specify how many troops should be added. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27, limit deferments over minor disabilities and restrict the ability of draft dodgers to obtain loans or buy property. It also gives local authorities greater responsibility for conscription.

Viktor Kevliuk, a retired Ukrainian colonel who oversaw mobilization in western Ukraine from 2014 to 2018, said the bill was “specifically aimed” at facilitating the drafting of hundreds of thousands.

“The state is taking a firm stance on how quickly it can provide its defense forces with such a number of personnel,” Mr. Kevliuk said.

But many lawmakers, including from Mr. Zelensky’s party, have raised concerns at measures such as those affecting the disabled and draft dodgers. They also say that relying on local governments may exacerbate problems. 

“All together, that made this bill unacceptable in its form,” said Oleksiy Honcharenko, a member of Parliament in the opposition European Solidarity party.

“If our strategy is to attack through Russian minefields, with Russian air superiority, then, I don’t know, 500,000 people may not be enough. Maybe one million, or even two million will not be enough,” he said. “We can’t compete with Russia in terms of the number of people. They will always win this competition — they’re just bigger than us.”

Mr. Burkovsky, the political analyst, said the Ukrainian authorities had failed to “plan the pace of recruitment, of training and of replenishment of troops” in the war’s first year, leaving them to rush through the conscription process without addressing underlying issues that cause concern in Ukrainian civil society.

The bill, for instance, leaves open the possibility of demobilizing troops after three years of service. But relatives of men who have fought since the war began say this is too long and that they need to be replaced now. In recent weeks, Ukrainian cities have seen a growing number of protests calling for immediate demobilization, a rare show of public criticism in wartime.

Mr. Zelensky has also highlighted the cost of mobilization for Ukraine’s flagging economy.

Conscription means fewer taxpayers covering a bigger army payroll. Mr. Zelensky said last month that mobilizing more than 450,000 people would cost 500 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, about $13 billion — when continued Western financial aid is in doubt.

“Where will we get the money from?” Mr. Zelensky asked.